Southern Sudan is “scheduled” to become an independent state next year. This article operates on the assumption that President al-Bashir allows the south to secede without a fight (he’s promised that he’ll honor the democratic process, but his word isn’t worth much).
Yet, a new, independent state is not easy to build or maintain. This article speculates on the elements of success and failure inherent in the system, the people, and the culture. The author says that ultimately “The Dinka will decide whether Africa’s latest state-in-waiting will fail or prosper.”
-Azy
From The Economist:
THE Anglican Bishop of Bor, Nathaniel Garang, sits under the little shade afforded by a thorn tree. His dusty compound has a few mud and straw huts, some plastic chairs, and goats reaching up to bare branches on their hind legs. The bishop is around 70, he guesses, and in reflective mood. He wears a small brass cross given to him by the Archbishop of Canterbury. Entering Canterbury cathedral, he remarks, was a special moment in his life.
Mr Garang is a Dinka, the largest of south Sudan’s tribes. Specifically, he is a Bor Dinka (see map), the first of the Dinka groups to become Christian and be educated. Their historic missionary post, founded just upriver on the Nile in 1905, was burnt down during Sudan’s long civil war between the Arab and Muslim north and the Christian and animist south that ended only five years ago. The cathedral in Bor was also shot up, but still attracts several thousand worshippers.
Mr Garang attributes miracles in the war to the Dinka’s strong Christian faith. “We Dinka know the blood of animal sacrifice is very powerful, so the blood of Christ is easy for us to understand.” Will there be another war? Mr Garang shakes his head firmly. “This is a time of work, peace and resettlement.”
In elections last month Omar al-Bashir, a northern Arab, easily retained the presidency of Sudan as a whole, especially since the main northern opposition boycotted the proceedings, while in the south the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the former rebels’ political wing, won hands down. The southerners now eagerly await a promised referendum on independence early next year. They are very likely to vote for secession. If allowed to, they will then create Africa’s first newly independent country since Eritrea in 1993.
In any event, the new state of South Sudan, whose official name has yet to be finally determined, will be dominated by the Dinka. Their politicians, their spending priorities, even their culture seem set to prevail. At least a quarter of south Sudan’s 9m people are Dinka. For two decades the southern rebels’ leader was a Dinka, John Garang, a kinsman of the bishop. After his death in a helicopter crash in 2005, he was succeeded by another Dinka, Salva Kiir, who launched his recent election campaign from John Garang’s mausoleum. Like the Kikuyu in Kenya, the Dinka are often accused by the region’s other 40-plus tribes of tailoring South Sudan’s foundation story to suit their own ends.
Read the rest of the article here.